2018 Potential & Goals Study

According to R.13-11-005 schedule, the next Potential and Goals Update Bus Stop is May 2017.

Stakeholder engagement will take place via the Demand Analysis Working Group (DAWG). To join visit www.dawg.info , "mailing list" tab.

The DAWG is a 'collaborative stakeholder forum established in 2009 by the CEC and the Commission to address technical issues associated with aligning CEC demand forecasting and the Commission's energy efficiency goals modeling efforts' (D.14-10-046 at 12). For information about the DAWG visit: www.dawg.info  

For more information, contact Paula Gruendling at paula.gruendling@cpuc.ca.gov.

1/19/2018 P&G Report Errata

Since the publication of the 2018 PG Study, Navigant discovered an issue with how the model was reporting cumulative savings from rebated equipment. This specifically impacted the reported savings for measures with dual baseline treatment (i.e. retrofit measures and measures for which below-code savings are being reported). This correction does not impact savings from replace on burnout equipment, codes and standards, low income programs, behavior programs, or industrial/agriculture emerging technologies.

This update does not impact annual savings values used to inform the CPUC's goals setting process

 9/25/2017 Final 208+ P&G Report

To access the Analytica model please download the Analytica player:

http://downloads.analytica.com/ana/Ana64Setup4_6_1.exe

8/25/2017 Final report release via Proposed Decision

6/15/2017  Draft report released via Ruling.  Formal comment period until July 7th and reply comments until July 15th.

4/28/2017  DAWG Energy Saving Pup - Potentional Savings from Low Income Programs

The CPUC Potential and Goals (PG) study is currently updating its estimate of savings from Residential Low Income (LI) utility programs.  Commission staff and Navigant will present at this webinar an overview of LI calculation methodology, findings from review of literature and research, and 2018 PG study draft inputs and preliminary results for LI.  This webinar will not cover topics beyond Residential Low Income.

Supporting documents: presentation, agenda and comments are available here

4/20/2017  DAWG Energy Saving Pup - CPUC 2018 & Beyond EE Potential & Goals Study - Behavior, Retrocommissioning & Operational Savings

The CPUC 2018 and Beyond Potential and Goals study is currently being updated with an expended scope of Behavior, Operational Efficiency and Retrocommissioning (BROs) savings potential.  The CPUC's contractor, Navigant, will present at this webinar an overview of the Residential and Commerical BROs methodology and draft results for stakeholder review and comments.  Please see meeting documents below.  We encourage participants to review the material before the meeting to facilitate discussion.  This workshop will not cover any topics other than BROs savings.  An information comment period will follow the workshop.  Supporting documents:  presentation and supporting materials, informal comments are available here

12/12/2016  Demand Analysis Working Group (DAWG) - CPUC 2018 & Beyond EE Potential & Goals Study - Model Calibration and Forecasting Scenarios

Commission staff and Navigant will present on two key methodological topics that impact the forecast of market potential:  Calibration and Scenarios.  Calibration focuses primarily on IOU rebate programs.  this webinar will cover the following topics:

  • Calibration
    • Basics of adoption forecasting and key variables
    • What is calibration and why is the forecast calibrated?
    • Calibration methodology
  • Scenarios
    • Key variables that can be considered in scenario analysis
    • Developing scenario pathways
    • Collectively brainstorm with stakeholder the opportunities and barriers to incorporating the SB350 mandate into scenarios.

Supporting documents - click here  

 12/09/2016  Demand analysis Working Group (DAWG) -Energy savings Pup:  CPUC 2018 & Beyond EE Potential & Goals Study - Agriculture, Industrial, Mining and Streetlighting (AIMS)

Commission staff and Navigant will present on the updated methodology for the Agriculture, Industrial, Mining and Streetlighting sectors of the Potential and Goals Study.  the vast majority of the webinar will focus on the Industrial and Agriculture sectors with very minimal coverage of mining and streetlighting as very few updates are planned for these sectors.  The team will:

  • Provide stakeholders an overview of the updated approach to quantifying potential within the AIMS subsector.
  • Describe the measure categories identified by the team within the Industrial and Agricultural sectors and how the analysis will approach each.  These categories include deemed, custom, and emerging technology.
  • Discuss the interrelation of custom measures and Strategic Energy Management (SEM)
  • Describe the key inputs the team will collect
  • Solicity feedback on methodology and key input parameters

Supporting documents - click here

11/04/2016  Demand Analysis Working Group (DAWG) - Energy Savings Pup:  Behavior, Retrocommissioning, Operational Efficiency (BROs), Whole Building methods and Preview of To-Code/Double Counted Savings approach meeting.

CPUC will host a stakeholder workshop to discuss analysis and see stakeholder feedback on topics of the upcoming Potential and Goals study:

  1. Behavior, Retrocommissioning and Operational Efficiency (BROs)
  2. Whole Building approaches to energy efficiency.

The workshop will also introduce the current thinking on how to estimate potential of to-code savings/double counted savings.  This topic was added to the scope of the workshop for early feedback but will be discussed again as part of the methods to determine market potential.

08/29/2016  Demand Analysis Working Group (DAWG) - Energy Savings Pup:  Measure List meeting

This meeting will cover Navigant Consulting's measure selection process as part of the CPUC 2018 & Beyond Energy Efficiency Potential Goals Study and discuss a proposed list of selected measures

The workshop will describe Navigant's approach for arriving at a list of selected energy efficiency measures for all sectors, starting out with a universal measure list.  It will present all data sources considered for developing the universal list and describe the criteria for selecting a subset of measures from this list.

Agenda, PowerPoint, Comments(zip file)

07/19/2016  Demand Analysis Working Group (DAWG) - Energy Savings Pup:  AB 802 Analysis + EE Potential 2018 & Beyond meeting

Navigant Consulting presented the methodology and findings of its AB802 Technical Analysis (released in April 2016) and the progress in additional research and analysis.  The AB802 Technical Analysis was developed as an initial framework for incorporating the AB802 mandates and quantification of opportunities and risks.

CPUC staff and Navigant also discussed the initial scope of the 2018 and Beyond energy efficiency potential study which is the next scheduled study to inform and update to the IOU goals.

AB 802 Technical Analysis

The 2018 Study is expected to include methodological changes to the 2013 study. the scope of the changes/updates has not yet been defined. due to the adoption of AB 802 (Williams), this update will set goals considering Existing baseline conditions policies. This Technical Analysis is not setting goals.

Navigant AB802 Technical Analysis